• 不同评分系统对慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重患者28天生存率的预测价值
  • Predictive value of different scoring systems for 28 day survival rate in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
  • 叶世华,翟亚波,杨继俊,黄松带,潘利英,梁宇.不同评分系统对慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重患者28天生存率的预测价值[J].内科急危重症杂志,2019,25(5):364-366
    DOI:10.11768/nkjwzzzz20190503
    中文关键词:  评分  慢性阻塞性肺疾病  急性加重期  28天生存率
    英文关键词:Scoring  Prediction of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease  Acute exacerbation  28 day survival rate
    基金项目:基金项目:东莞市科学技术局医学科研项目(No:201610515000571)
    作者单位
    叶世华 东莞市黄江医院 
    翟亚波 东莞市黄江医院 
    杨继俊 东莞市黄江医院 
    黄松带 东莞市黄江医院 
    潘利英 东莞市黄江医院 
    梁宇 东莞市黄江医院 
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    中文摘要:
          目的:探讨不同评分系统对慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重期(AECOPD)患者28d生存率的预测价值。方法:收集AECOPD患者150例,均进行积极常规救治,采用BAP-65评分、急性生理与慢性健康状况评分Ⅱ(APACHEⅡ)及慢性阻塞性肺疾病和支气管哮喘生理评分(CAPS)对28d生存率进行预测。根据预后将患者分为死亡组12例和存活组138例。结果:死亡组患者APACHEⅡ评分与CAPS评分均明显高于存活组(P<0.05),两组BAP-65评分差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。3种评分系统中APACHEⅡ评分对AECOPD患者28d生存率预测曲线下面积最大,为0.917,且其敏感性及特异性均最大,分别为89.06%及83.88%,CAPS评分与BAP 65评分曲线下面积分别为0.828、0.888,且诊断敏感性及特异性均在70%以上。结论: BAP-65评分、APACHEⅡ评分及CAPS评分对AECOPD患者28d生存率均有较高的预测价值,且APACHEⅡ评分预测价值最佳。
    英文摘要:
          Objective: To investigate the value of different scoring systems in predicting 28 day survival rate in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). Methods: A total of 150 AECOPD patients were enrolled. All patients underwent routine treatment with a BAP-65 score, APACHE II score, and CAPS score to predict 28 day survival. Patients were divided into death group (12 cases) and survival group (138 cases) according to the prognosis of patients. Results: The APACHE II score and CAPS score in the death group were significantly higher than those in the survival group (P<0.05). The difference in BAP-65 scores between the two groups was statistically significant (P<0.05). The ROC results showed that the APACHE II score in the three scoring systems had the largest area under the 28 day survival rate prediction curve for AECOPD patients, and the sensitivity and specificity were 89.06% and 83.88%, respectively. The CAPS score and BAP-65 score curves were obtained. The lower area was 0.828 and 0.888, respectively, and the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were above 70%. Conclusion: The BAP-65 score, APACHE II score and CAPS score have a higher predictive value for 28 day survival rate in patients with AECOPD, and the predictive value of the APACHE II score is the highest.